Probability for DUMmIES.pdf

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D9-)9+*+*/*69F)<25+69,8/,.9,15++5/0+6/)2:<9=::,9++9:*/*69J97=2R9.=,*190*e?529%F)<25+6507e

M0;ce`a]Z\S,/++./50*T2(:ceM0:5=0=./25+eMH][_\[e^`Zd\Z_d^]]Ze8=&^`Zd\Z_d]^\\e/,/02509=* ,##&244

5 +*.50')4-'4&.%)+$$+'($ c

A):76.:)0(U?529%e*69?529%F)<25+65072/7/eP/,R)1159+e*69R)1159+I=02/7/eUD989,90;98/,*69

D9+*/8A+ieB69R)1159+?=%eR)1159+R=52%eB69P)0=0:Q=+%?=%eR)1159+c;/1e=0:,92=*9:*,=:9

:,9++=,9*,=:91=,3+/,,975+*9,9:*,=:91=,3+/8L/60?529%hC/0+eM0;ce=0:b/,5*+=88525=*9+50*69A05*9:

C*=*9+=0:/*69,;/)0*,59+e=0:1=%0/*<9)+9:'5*6/)*',5**90.9,15++5/0cU22/*69,*,=:91=,3+=,9*69

.,/.9,*%/8*695,,9+.9;*5(9/'09,+c?529%F)<25+6507eM0;ce5+0/*=++/;5=*9:'5*6=0%.,/:);*/,(90:/,

190*5/09:50*65+<//3c

ILHLAFOILTSLILA<VQLBRITLHPCFO>TCCTGA< UAMPE@SILBMPCTGQAMPT@AMFCHTJPGFCPEX

CPBPGATALFGBFC>TCCTGALPB>LAMCPBEPRAAFAMPTRR@CTR<FCRFHEIPAPGPBBFOAMPRFGX

APGABFOAMLB>FCJTGQBEPRLOLRTII<QLBRITLHTII>TCCTGALPBYLGRI@QLGN>LAMF@A

ILHLATALFG>TCCTGALPBFOOLAGPBBOFCTETCALR@ITCE@CEFBPWGF>TCCTGA<HT<SPRCPX

TAPQFCP=APGQPQS<BTIPBFCECFHFALFGTIHTAPCLTIBWAMPTQ?LRPTGQBACTAPNLPBRFGX

ATLGPQMPCPLGHT<GFASPB@LATSIPOFCP?PC<BLA@TALFGWAMLB>FCJLBBFIQ>LAMAMP

@GQPCBATGQLGNAMTAAMPE@SILBMPCLBGFAPGNTNPQLGCPGQPCLGNIPNTIYTRRF@GALGNYFC

FAMPCECFOPBBLFGTIBPC?LRPBWLOECFOPBBLFGTITBBLBATGRPLBCPD@LCPQYAMPBPC?LRPBFOT

RFHEPAPGAECFOPBBLFGTIEPCBFGBMF@IQSPBF@NMAWGPLAMPCAMPE@SILBMPCGFCAMP

T@AMFCBMTIISPILTSIPOFCQTHTNPBTCLBLGNMPCPOCFHWAMPOTRAAMTATGFCNTGL;TALFG

FC>PSBLAPLBCPOPCCPQAFLGAMLB>FCJTBTRLATALFGTGQVFCTEFAPGALTIBF@CRPFOO@CX

AMPCLGOFCHTALFGQFPBGFAHPTGAMTAAMPT@AMFCFCAMPE@SILBMPCPGQFCBPBAMPLGOFCX

HTALFGAMPFCNTGL;TALFGFC>PSBLAPHT<ECF?LQPFCCPRFHHPGQTALFGBLAHT<HTJPW

O@CAMPCYCPTQPCBBMF@IQSPT>TCPAMTALGAPCGPA>PSBLAPBILBAPQLGAMLB>FCJHT<MT?P

RMTGNPQFCQLBTEEPTCPQSPA>PPG>MPGAMLB>FCJ>TB>CLAAPGTGQ>MPGLALBCPTQW

P/,7909,=2508/,1=*5/0/0/),/*69,.,/:);*+=0:+9,(5;9+e.29=+9;/0*=;*/),S)+*/19,S=,9

R9.=,*190*'5*650*69AcCc=*YaadZ[_d_XZ]e/)*+5:9*69AcCc=*^`Zd\Z_d^XX^e/,8=&^`Zd\Z_d]aa_c

P/,*9;605;=2+)../,*e.29=+9(5+5* 5 +*.50')4#.0,$"&&'%# c

?529%=2+/.)<25+69+5*+<//3+50=(=,59*%/8929;*,/05;8/,1=*+cC/19;/0*90**6=*=..9=,+50.,50*1=%

0/*<9=(=52=<2950929;*,/05;<//3+c

J5<,=,%/8S/07,9++S/0*,/2H)1<9,W_aa\X^Y_\_

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g`XX^fcA./07,=:)=*507e+694/509:*698=;)2*%50*69R9.=,*190*/8

C*=*5+*5;+=*K=0+=+C*=*9A05(9,+5*%e'69,9+69'/0*69:5+*507)5+69:

F,9+5:90*5=2B9=;6507U'=,:=0:9=,09:*90),9=0:.,/1/*5/050`XXYc

M0_aaae+69,9*),09:*/G65/C*=*9=0:5+0/'=C*=*5+*5;+Q:);=*5/0

C.9;5=25+*bU)&525=,%P=;)2*%I91<9,8/,*69R9.=,*190*/8C*=*5+*5;+c

R,cD)1+9%6=++9,(9:/0*69U19,5;=0C*=*5+*5;=2U++/;5=*5/0 +C*=*5+*5;+

Q:);=*5/0Q&9;)*5(9S/115**99=0:5+*69Q:5*/,/8*69B9=;6507T5*++9;*5/0

/8*692$ #%/'$*1!/!)"!)-"4, -/!)$%6 C69 +*69=)*6/,/8*69<//3+1!/!)"!)-"

3$#5 &&)+"=0: 1!/!)"!)-"0$#(.$$(3$#5 &&)+" g?529%fcC69=2+/6=+

.)<25+69:1=0%.=.9,+=0:75(901=0%.,/89++5/0=2.,9+90*=*5/0+/0*69

+)<49;*/8C*=*5+*5;+Q:);=*5/0cN9,.=,*5;)2=,,9+9=,;650*9,9+*+=,9;),,5;)d

2)11=*9,5=2+:9(92/.190*e*9=;69,*,=50507=0:+)../,*e=0:5119,+5(9

29=,050790(5,/0190*+cN9,.=++5/0+e<9+5:9+*9=;6507e50;2):969,8=152%e

85+6507e<5,:'=*;6507e:,5(507=09'K)</*=*,=;*/,/0*698=152%"8=,1e!

=0:G65/C*=*9T);39%98//*<=22g0/*09;9++=,52%50*6=*/,:9,fc

3./+02#+&'

B/1%6)+<=0:Q,5;WB6=03+8/,,/22507*69:5;9=0:*=3507=;6=0;9/019c

B/1%+/0S250*Q,5;W>/),+1529=2'=%+<,507+197//:2);3c

4"#,&% $40*'&!)./-(.'#$

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:9,8)2+/),;9/8+)../,*=+1%.,/49;*9:5*/,V=0:*/R,cI=,4/,59T/0:e

I/01/)*6S/22979e8/,=0/*69,50(=2)=<29*9;605;=2,9(59'cB6=03+*/L/+6

R5=2+8/,65+9:5*507*6=*39.**6507+2576*cB6=03+*/K%*6,59C52(=8/,<9259(d

5075019V*/F97C*9579,'=2:8/,69,;/0+*=0*+)../,*=0:8,590:+65.V=0:*/

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*6=03=22*69+*):90*+M6=(96=:*69.,5(52979/8*9=;6507V%/)=,9*6950+.5d

,=*5/08/,=22/81%'/,3c

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