Peter Schwartz - The Long Boom, A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity (2000).pdf

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The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity
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- The
LONq
BOOIVI
A VISION FOR THE COMING
AGE OF PROSPERITY
PETER SCHWARTZ
PETER LsydEN
JOEl HyATT
BASIC
BOOKS
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
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To Ben, Emma, Zachary, and Jared,
Our Long Boom Generation who will inherit
the world we create today, and who~can
expect to see both the beginning and
the end of the twenty-first century.
Many of the designations used by manufacturers and sellers to destinguish their products
are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book an Basic Books was
aware of trademark claim, the designations have been printed in initial
capital letters.
Catalog Card Number Is available from the Library of Congress
ISBN: 0-7382-0364-5
Copyright © 1999,2000 by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval
system, or transmitted, to any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo-
copying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the pub-
lisher. Printed to the United States of America.
Basic Books is a Member of the Perseus Books Group.
Text design by Heather Hutchison
Set In 10-point Stone Serif
10 98765432
First paperback printing, August 2000
Basic Books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases in the
U.S. by corporations, Institutions, and other organizations. For more information,
please contact the Special Markets Department at HarperCollins Publishers, 10 last
S3rd Street, New York, NY 10022, or call 1-212-207-7528,
Visit us on the World Wide Web at www.basjcbooks.com
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CONTENTS
Preface: A Shared Political Vision
v
Introduction: The Historic Moment
1
PART I
TRAck the INEviTAbls
1 The Great Enabler
19
"Openness Wins," 30
2 The Millennial Transition
37
1980, London, 37
"Going Global," 57
PART II
Thi Politics of The Lowq BOOM
3 The New American Ideology
65
1990, Tokyo, 65
"Politics Adapts," 76
"Learning Innovation," 85
4 The New European Renaissance
91
"The Inclusive Community," 102
5 Asia Rises Again
109
6 The Global Challenges
133
1999, San Francisco, 142
PART III
THE ENQINES of THE TwENTY-fiRsT CENTURY
7 Saving the Planet
149
"Growing Together," 165
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iv
CONTENTS
8 Dawn of the Hydrogen Age
171
"Everyone Lets Go," 181
9 Technology Emulates Nature
187
10 Prepare for Wild Science
211
"Expanding into Space," 221
PART IV
BiRih of A GlobAl CivilizAiioN
11 The New Global Middle Class
229
2010, Rural California, 237
12 The Emergence of Women
241
2020, Capetown, 250
13 The Guiding Principles
255
Go Global, 256
Open Up, 258
Let Go, 262
Grow More, 265
Always Adapt, 267
Keep Learning, 268
Value Innovation, 270
Get Connected, 271
Be Inclusive, 272
Stay Confident, 275
2050, American Heartland, 277
14 The Choice
281
AflERWORd
A Memo to the President-Elect
291
The Story of the Idea
295
Notes
303
Selected Bibliography
315
About the Authors
321
Index
323
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