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4 Read the article and find out what Stephen Hawking' s predictions for the areas in 3 are.

A brief his tory of the future

Will we colonise the universe? Are aliens out there? Can computers outsmart

us? In a unique interview, Professor Stephen Hawking, who has spent a

lifetime applying his formidable intellect to the bigquestions, gives Nigel

Farndale his predictions for the human race.

rve come here - to Cambridge University's Department of Applied

Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, where Hawking holds the

professorial chair once held by Isaac Newton - on the turn ot the

millennium to ask him what he thinks the future has in store tor the

5 human race. .

If the world's population continues to growat its present rate -

doubling every 40 years - there isn't going to be enough roorn tor us

aUon Earth by the year 2600.So will we, I ask, be able to spread out

to other planets? His hands go into action. The on1ysounds in the

10room are the c1ickin& ot the pressure pads and

the whirring of the computer.The electronic

voice delivers the answer five minutes later.

'We sball probably manage a manned or,

should I say, personned; flight to Mars in the

15next century: Hawking says. 'But Earth is by

far the most favoured planet in the solar

system. Mars is smali, coldand without much

atmosphere. and the other planets are quite

unsuitable for hurnan beings. We either have

20to learn to live in space stations or travel to the

next star. We won't do that in the next

century.'

I ask whether we humans will keep on

changing. or will we eventually reach an

25ultimate levelof developmentand knowle4ge?

Clickclick click.'In the next 100years or even

in the next twenty. we may discover a complete theory ot the basic

laws of the universe (the so-called.Theory ot Everything, in which

quantum theory is unified with Einstein's theory ot generai

30relativity), but there will be no limit to the complexity of biological

or e1ectronicsystems we can build under these laws.'

I'm just about to ask a supplementary question when the hands

start up again. A few minutes pass beforeHawking adds: 'By tar the

most complex systems we bave are our own bodies. There haven't

35been any significant changes in human DNA in the past 10,000years.

But soon we will be able to increase the complexity of our internal

record, our DNA, without having to wait tor the slow process ot

biological evolution. ILis like1ythat we will be able to redesign it

completely in the next 1,000 years - by increasing our brain size, for

40 example.Of course,manywillsay geneticengineeringon humans

will be banned but I rather doubt that they will be able to prevent it.

Genetic engineering on plants and animals will be allowed for

economic reasons and someone is bound to try it on humans - unless

we have a totalitarian world order, someone will improve humans

45 somewhere.'

'We need to become more complex if biologicalsystems are to

keep ahead of electronic ones. At the moment computers bave an ~

advantageof speedbuttheyshownosignof intelligenceThis is not ~

surprising as our present computers are less complexthan the brain f

of an earthworm. a species not knownfor its intellectua1powers.But 50 ;~

computers'speed and complexitydouble every eighteenmonths and ~

this will probably continue until computers have a similar .J

complexitto the humanbrain.' . . ~

But will computers ever show true intelligence, wbatever that . t

might be? 'IL seems.to me that if very 55 ~

complicatechemicalmoleculecanoperatein " 1-

humans to make them intelligent,then equally l'

complicate electronicircuitscan also make ~

computersact in an intelligentway.And if ~

they are intelligent, they can presumably 60 ;.

design computers that have even greater

intelligenceand complexity.'

'On the biologicalside. the limit of human

intelligence bas been set by the size of the

hurnan brain that will pass through the birth 65

canal: Hawking says. 'Having watched my

three childrenbeing born, I knowhow difficu1t

it is to get the head out But in the next 100

years I expectwewilllearn how to grow babies f

outsidethe humanbody50thislimitationwill 70 ~

be removed.But ultimatelyincreasesin the

, I

size ot the human brain through genetic engineeringwill corneup

against the problem tbat the chemicalmessages responsible for our

mental activity are relatively slow-moving- so further increases in ~

the complexity ot the brain will be at the expense ot speed. We can 75 ~.

be quick-wittedor very intelligent,but not both.; ~

It's time to ask the big one:will we make contact with aliens in the (

next millel'Jlium?He smiles.His fingers clickthe pressure pads. The !

answer comes seven minutes later. 'Even if lite developed in other i

stellar systems. the chances of catching it at a recognisablyhuman 60 ~

stage are very small. Any alien lifewe encounter will be much more \

primitiveor much more advanced than us. And if it's moreadvanced

why hasn't it spread through the gaiaxy and visited Earth? ILcould

be that there is an advanced race out there which is aware ot our

existence but is leaving liS to stew in our own primitive juices-85' ;

However,I doubt they would be so considerate to a lower lite form.

Somepeople believe that the reason we bave not been contacted is

[

that when a civilisationreaches our stage ot developmentit becomes

unstable and destroys itself. But I'm an optimist I think we have a

goqdchance ot avoidingnuclearwar and Armageddon.'

90 lf

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"Y-';""'-"""""'''''.~' : ,.".,... "'!:~' ..' ". ."'. ...,., ,"' ". M,.'t" ': v j.

(Adapted trom The S,!nday Telegraph, 2nd January 2000)

Work with a partner and answer these questions:

a) Does anything Stephen Hawl<ingsays surprise you?

b) Do any of his predictions scare you?

c) What would you like to know about the future? Ask your partner what they think

might happen.

Cyberspace

...-----.-------

Language reference: will for predictions & assumptions

You can use will to show you are making a prediction.

will + perfect I perfect continuous

Future: Mer; will have been sent to Mars by the end of the

next cen tury.

Present I past: You'll have studied English for quite a number

of years I imagine.

You'/J have been studying in c/ass and at home on your own.

Past: You'll have taken a holiday in an English speaking

country.

(In the future) Computers will be more intelligent than

hum ans.

Vou can also use it to make assumptions about the present or

even the past.

(In the past) You will have learnt a lot of grammatical

structures.

Ali the following structures are possible:

will + probably

Notice the position of probably in affirmative and negative

sentences; usually after will in affirmative sentences but.,

betore won't in negative sentences.

will + infinitive

Future: Genetic engineering won't be banned' this cen tury. ,

Present: You'll be totally confident about using English on the

phone by no1lll.

They'1Iprobably want to stay for dinner.

They probably won't want to stay for dinner.

will + continuous

Future: We'/J all be working from home by the end of the

next cen tury.

Present You'll either b.e reading this with a partner or

studying it at home on your own.

We'lI probably be living in space stations.

We probably won't be living in space stations.

He'lI probably have eaten already.

He probably won't have eaten already.

Future worlds

1 Work in small groups. You are going to make predictions about the state of the world at

the end of the 21st century. Choose one of the pairs of topics below to discuss in depth.

"t .\C~~>.

;:;;~-; ~},;~',r;,:;~,.;;:'i)

':;. ~~.-.,~<,">:.,~'

':'

,..

.~.

-~.

~ ~'-.:

,.. '-. .:"

2 Choose a secr"etarywho will take notes on your discussion. Discuss the questions for the

topics you have chosen.

_i Cyberspace

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