Jared Diamond - Lessons Of Environmental Collapses Of Past Societies - 2004.pdf - Nauka - td_chmk

L ESSONS FROM

Environmental Collapses

OF P AST S OCIETIES

Environmental Collapses

Dr. Jared M. Diamond

University of California, Los Angeles

F OURTH A NNUAL J OHN H. C HAFEE M EMORIAL L ECTURE

ON S CIENCE AND THE E NVIRONMENT

January 29, 2004

THE NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND THE ENVIRONMENT (NCSE) has been working

since 1990 to improve the scientific basis for environmental decisionmaking and has earned an impressive reputation for

objectivity, responsibility, and achievement.

The Council envisions a society where environmental decisions are based on an accurate understanding of the under-

lying science, its meaning, and its limitations. In such a society, citizens and decisionmakers receive accurate, under-

standable, and integrated science-based information. They understand the risks, uncertainties, and potential consequences

of their action or inaction.

Supported by over 500 academic, scientific, environmental, and business organizations, and federal, state, and local

government, NCSE works closely with the many communities creating and using environmental knowledge to make and

shape environmental decisions.

The Council operates a range of innovative activities in the areas of:

P ROMOTING S CIENCE FOR THE E NVIRONMENT

The Council played an instrumental role in stimulating the National Science Foundation initiative to triple its annual

budget for environmental research, education, and scientific assessment. The Council presents expert testimony to

Congressional committees, consults regularly with key decisionmakers in government, and works to promote funding for

environmental programs at numerous federal agencies.

E NHANCING P ROGRAMS AT A CADEMIC I NSTITUTIONS

NCSE brings members of the academic community together to improve their environmental programs and increase their

value to society through the University Affiliate Program, the Council of Environmental Deans and Directors, and the

Minority Programs Office.

C ATALYZING AND A DVANCING I DEAS FROM D IVERSE C OMMUNITIES

The Council advances science for more informed environmental decisionmaking through conferences, workshops, and

partnerships, including the annual National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment, the annual John H.

Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment, and public-private partnerships designed to reinforce the

linkages between science and decisionmaking in developing countries.

C OMMUNICATING S CIENCE -B ASED I NFORMATION TO S OCIETY

NCSE is committed to communicating science-based information to decisionmakers and the general public in a way that

is comprehensive and understandable. The widely-acclaimed online National Library for the Environment (NLE) includes

Congressional Research Service reports, directories of foundations and academic programs, job opportunities, environ-

mental news sources, laws, treaties, and much more. NCSE publishes the annual Handbook of Federal Funding for

Environmental R&D and the bi-monthly Science, Environment and Policy Report for members of the University Affiliate

Program. The Council sends science policy updates to over 15,000 interested individuals worldwide.

D EVELOPING S CIENCE S OLUTIONS FOR E NVIRONMENTAL C HALLENGES

The Council brings stakeholders together through its Center for Science Solutions to develop and implement science-

based solutions to specific environmental problems. The first program under the Center, the National Commission on

Science for Sustainable Forestry, endeavors to develop a better scientific foundation for assessing and improving sustain-

able forest management practices.

J OHN H. C HAFEE M EMORIAL L ECTURE ON S CIENCE

AND THE E NVIRONMENT

L ESSONS FROM

Environmental Collapses

OF P AST S OCIETIES

Dr. Jared M. Diamond

University of California, Los Angeles

Sponsored by the

National Council for Science and the Environment

Presented at the

4th National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment

Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center

Washington, DC

January 29, 2004

This volume is the fourth in a series of books documenting the annual John H. Chafee

Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment.

ISBN 0-9710439-6-5

For citation purposes, please use:

Diamond, Jared, Lessons from Environmental Collapses of Past Societies . Fourth Annual John H.

Chafee Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment. Washington, DC: National

Council for Science and the Environment, 2004.

This volume is the fourth in a series of books documenting the annual John H. Chafee

Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment. The lecture was delivered at the 4th

National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment: Water for a Sustainable and

Secure Future (Craig Schiffries, Conference Chair) on January 29, 2004, in Washington, DC.

National Council for Science and the Environment

1707 H Street, NW, Suite 200

Washington, DC 20006-3918

Phone: 202-530-5810

Fax: 202-628-4311

E-mail: info@NCSEonline.org

Web:

www.NCSEonline.org

Printed on recycled paper with soy inks.

Manufactured in the United States of America.

S PONSORSHIP

The National Council for Science and the Environment is grateful to the

following sponsors for making possible the Fourth Annual John H. Chafee

Memorial Lecture on Science and the Environment:

S PONSORS

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

U.S. Geological Survey

P ARTNERS

EarthVoice/The Humane Society of the U.S.

USDA Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service

P ATRONS

American Water

AT&T

The Coca-Cola Company

Disney’s Animal Kingdom

The Dow Chemical Company

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Park Service

USDA Forest Service

S UPPORTER

Rivers Institute at Hanover College

A DDITIONAL F UNDING F ROM

The Winslow Foundation

NCSE University Affiliate Members

iii

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