2011wesp.pdf

World Economic Situation

and Prospects

World Economic Situation

and Prospects 2011

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United Nations

New York, 2011

Acknowledgements

he report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Afairs (UN/DESA), the United

Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the ive United Nations regional commissions

(Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin

America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paciic (ESCAP) and Economic

and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)).

For the preparation of the global outlook, inputs were received from the national centres of Project LINK and

from the participants at the annual LINK meeting held in New York from 20 to 22 October 2010. he cooperation and

support received through Project LINK are gratefully acknowledged.

he United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) contributed to the section on international

tourism.

he report has been prepared by a team coordinated by Rob Vos and comprising staf from all collaborating

agencies, including Grigor Agabekian, Tarik Alami, Clive Altshuler, Shuvojit Banerjee, Sudip Ranjan Basu, Jefrey Bliss,

Alfredo Calcagno, Rodrigo Cárcamo, Jaromir Cekota, Ann D’Lima, Oumar Diallo, Adam Elhiraika, Kumi Endo,

Pilar Fajarnes, Heiner Flassbeck, Marco Fugazza, Samuel Gayi, Sergei Gorbunov, Cordelia Gow, Yejin Ha, Aynul Hasan,

Pingfan Hong, Alberto E. Isgut, Alex Izurieta, Osvaldo Kacef, Jane Karonga, Matthias Kempf, John Kester, Detlef Kotte,

Nagesh Kumar, Alexandra Laurent, Daniel Jeongdae Lee, Hung-Yi Li, Muhammad Hussain Malik, Sandra Manuelito,

Joerg Mayer, Nicolas Maystre, Simon Neaime, Victor Ognivtsev, Ann Orr, Oliver Paddison, José Palacin, Ingo Pitterle,

Marco V. Sánchez, Benu Schneider, Krishnan Sharma, Robert Shelburne, Amos Taporaie, Alexander Trepelkov,

Aimable Uwizeye-Mapendano, Sergio Vieira, Jürgen Weller, Yasuhisa Yamamoto and Anida Yupari.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, provided comments

and guidance.

For further information, see http://www.un.org/esa/policy or contact:

DESA :

Mr. Sha Zukang, Under-Secretary-General, Department of Economic and Social Afairs, Room DC2-2320,

United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA; telephone: +1-212-9635958; email: sha@un.org

UNCTAD :

Mr. Supachai Panitchpakdi, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,

Room E-9042, Palais de Nations, CH-1211, Geneva 10, Switzerland; telephone +41-22-9175806;

email: sgo@unctad.org

ECA :

Mr. Abdoulie Janneh, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, P.O. Box 3005,

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; telephone: +251-11-544 3336; email: ecainfo@uneca.org

ECE :

Mr. Ján Kubiš, Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Information Service,

Palais des Nations, CH-1211, Geneva 10, Switzerland; telephone: +41-22-9174444; email: info.ece@unece.org

ECLAC :

Ms. Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean,

Av. Dag Hammarskjold 3477, Vitacura, Santiago, Chile; telephone: +56-2-2102000; email: secepal@cepal.org

ESCAP:

Ms. Noeleen Heyzer, Executive Secretary, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Paciic,

United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, hailand; telephone: +66-2-2881234;

email: unescap@unescap.org

ESCWA :

Ms. Rima Khalaf, Executive Secretary, Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, P.O. Box 11-8575,

Riad el-Solh Square, Beirut, Lebanon; telephone: +961-1-978800; website: http://www.escwa.un.org/about/staf.asp

Cover photo credits :

iStockphoto.com/Konstantin Inozemtsev

iii

Executive Summary

The global economic outlook

Weaker global growth is expected in 2011 and 2012…

After a year of fragile and uneven recovery, global economic growth started to decelerate

on a broad front in mid-2010. he slowdown is expected to continue into 2011 and 2012

as weaknesses in major developed economies continue to provide a drag on the global re-

covery and pose risks for world economic stability in the coming years. he unprecedented

scale of the policy measures taken by Governments during the early stage of the crisis no

doubt helped stabilize inancial markets and jump-start a recovery. he policy response

weakened during 2010, however, and is expected to be much less supportive in the near

term also, especially as widening iscal deicits and rising public debt have undermined

support for further iscal stimuli. Many Governments, particularly those in developed

countries, are already shifting towards iscal austerity. his will adversely afect global

economic growth during 2011 and 2012.

…as multiple risks to the recovery remain

Despite the notable progress made by the banking sector in disposing of its troubled assets,

multiple risks remain. Real estate markets may deteriorate further, credit growth remains

feeble, and levels of unemployment are persistently high. Most countries have kept in

place, or even intensiied, policies of cheap money (low interest rates and quantitative

easing) in eforts to help inancial sectors return to normalcy and stimulate economic

activity as iscal stimuli are being phased out. his has, however, added new risks, includ-

ing greater exchange-rate volatility among major currencies and a surge of volatile capital

lows to emerging markets, which have already become a source of economic tension and

could harm the recovery in the near term. Such tensions have weakened the commitment

to coordinate policies at the international level, which in turn has made dealing with the

global imbalances and other structural problems that led to the crisis, as well as those that

were created by it, all the more challenging.

The global recovery has been dragged down by the developed economies

World gross product (WGP) is forecast to expand by 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 3.5 per cent

in 2012. he recovery may, however, sufer setbacks and slow to below 2 per cent, while

some developed economies may slip back into recession if several of the downside risks

take shape.

Among the developed economies, the United States of America has been on

the mend from its longest and deepest recession since the Second World War, but has

nonetheless been experiencing the weakest recovery pace in history. Although the level of

gross domestic product (GDP) will return to its pre-crisis peak by 2011, a full recovery

of employment will take at least another four years. Growth in many European countries

will also remain low; drained by drastic iscal cuts, some may continue to be in recession.

Growth in Japan will also decelerate notably.

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